Atlanta’s bloated condo market in ‘danger zone,’ expert says
By KEVIN DUFFY
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 10/14/07Kevin Esch was in week four of his condo hunt. Was he getting antsy? Not in the least.
Esch looked at a one-bedroom unit at 905 Juniper St.; then with his real estate agent, Geoffrey Greene, walked over to Peachtree Street to check out Viewpoint, a 36-story tower under construction.
“She’s getting tall,” Esch, a fitness trainer, said, gazing up at Viewpoint while standing across the street at Spire, a residential high-rise finished two years ago.
Esch and Green visited the Viewpoint model home inside Spire, then drove four blocks north to hear the sales pitch at 1010 Midtown, a 35-story tower scheduled to open next year.
After that, they called it a day. Three condos. Two-and-a-half hours. No decision.
Esch can take his time. Atlanta is awash in condos.
“At a time when the pace of new development needed to slow, a record 3,050 units were started in the first half of 2007,” researcher David Haddow said in his midyear real estate report. “Atlanta’s intown condominium market has clearly entered the danger zone.”
A record 6,000-plus units are under construction, Haddow reported. Enough condos are out there to meet demand for the next 31 months, his figures show.
Haddow’s calculations don’t include the projects that have been proposed but not started, such as the two Trump Towers in Midtown.
“It’s the slowest market I’ve ever actually worked in,” said Greene, an agent with City Living.
Market changes caused the glut. In 2004 and 2005, Atlanta enjoyed a run-up in condo sales as intown living grew in popularity and easy credit made home ownership possible for more people.
Last year, buyer exuberance began to peter out and sales returned to levels closer to the norm. Condo projects, however, marched on. Supply and demand took different directions.
That’s a short-term disconnect that will correct itself, developers and real estate experts said. Long-term, the condo market will continue to grow right along with the city, they said.
“Commercial real estate markets have always been prone to this overbuilding,” said Richard Martin, a real estate professor at the University of Georgia. “They all see the same demand signal.”
From mid-2006 to mid-2007, condo sales fell to 2,239 units, sharply off the prior two years, when an average of 4,000 units sold, Haddow reported. The historical average is 2,733 units a year.
Gigi Giannoni, president of Evolv real estate service, said one reason for the downturn is that investors who had hoped to rent and sell condos lost confidence and fled the market.
“A lot of developers ran into that problem, that investors just decided to pull out,” Giannoni said. “Under-contract condos went empty.”
Relaxed credit requirements led to an increase in condo defaults. RealtyTrac, a company that tracks foreclosures, looked at how many Atlanta condos were repossessed from April to September over three years. This year, repossessions over that six-month span totaled 163 units, compared with 28 the year before and 59 in 2005.
Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac’s marketing communications manager, said condos are undercounted, so the true totals are undoubtedly higher.
“These numbers are not comprehensive,” Blomquist said. “My suspicion is that more records in our database are actually condos.”
Condo developers have begun their retreat as the market corrects itself.
Cousins Properties put off building a 210-unit tower on Ponce de Leon called The Premiere at Fox Plaza.
“That site is fantastic,” said Larry Gellerstedt III, president of Cousins’ office and multifamily division. But “we just took a look at the number of units coming out and hitting at about the same time.”
Coro Realty Advisors switched to apartments for its Buckhead Place project on Peachtree Road.
Wood Partners announced a similar switch for a tower at The Streets of Buckhead site.
Kim King Associates dropped plans to build condos atop the Hotel Palomar, now under construction in Midtown.
“It’s not that they don’t want to buy,” Mark Randall, a director with Wood Partners, said about condo hunters. “They’re scared to buy. It’ll settle out.”
Randall said he’s been trying to bat down rumors that the Trump Towers project, which Wood is shepherding, is gasping.
“I can tell you the way I’m writing checks right now, it’s not dead,” he said. “We continue to sell units. We will get started because we’re Trump.”
Novare, the biggest condo developer in Atlanta, is offering $10,000 worth of freebies to spark sales at Viewpoint. Free washer and dryer. Free refrigerator. Free hardwood floors.
“The market is different now,” said sales agent Michael Rosser, who showed Esch the Viewpoint model. “We have to give a little bit more.”
Novare President Jim Borders said it’s hunker-down time. “I don’t believe there’s going to be a tremendous new supply that is started in Atlanta over the next couple years,” Borders said. “For now, we’re going to sell the projects that we have.”
The demographics bode well for Atlanta’s condo market. The ranks of retirees, baby boomers seeking a second home and young urbanites are swelling.
A study released last year by a Portland economist said that from 1990 to 2000, Atlanta was the percentage leader in attracting the college-educated young, 25 to 34 years old.
A newcomer from New York or Chicago accustomed to high-rise living wants the same in Atlanta. Since 1997, 32,000-plus condo units have been started or built, Haddow’s research said.
“The speed of development of condos has just been tremendous,” said Karen Gibler, a real estate professor at Georgia State University. “Twenty years ago you probably couldn’t give a condo away. We just weren’t that kind of market.”
After periods of little growth or decline, the city’s population rose significantly the past two years. Spring 2006 to spring 2007 showed an increase of 12,600 people, the biggest spike in 30 years, according to the Atlanta Regional Commission.
“It’s a real change in the metropolitan area,” UGA’s Martin said. “There’s a taste for living in the city of Atlanta again.”
Sam Williams, president of the Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce, said jobs will determine the health of the condo market.
No one is making a bigger bet on Atlanta than the Miami-based Related Group, which has built more than 55,000 condos and apartments in Florida since 1979.
Over a period of years, the Related Group plans to build 13 condo towers in Buckhead. One project, CityPlace, would have nine high-rises and 28 townhomes off Roxboro Road between Peachtree and East Paces Ferry roads. The first tower, One CityPlace, a joint effort with Cousins, is set to get under way in December or January.
The Related Group also is teaming up with Cousins to build two high-rises off Piedmont Road, and it’s partnering with Simon Property Group to build two more at the end of East Paces Ferry Road.
Reasonable home prices and above-average household incomes will continue to draw residents to Atlanta, said Lee Hodges of the Related Group said.
“Atlanta is going to be a destination city because of the local economy,” he said.
Condo hunter Esch was effusive about Midtown’s vibrancy and convenience, but the idea of living in a really tall building left him cold.
“There’s something about that that’s just not inviting,” he said.
Finally, though, he found a condo that met most of his needs. It was affordable, close to work, just big enough and in a building of acceptable height – 20 stories.
It took five weeks, but Esch was almost home.